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Local government reorganisation requires resolving historic technical finance adjustments such as Adjustment-A, ensuring fair treatment of inherited debt and CFR balances, to avoid uneven revenue impacts and enable new authorities to begin with prudent, equitable debt repayment positions.
Arlingclose expects a UK Bank Rate cut in Q4 2025, with easing inflation, a softer labour market and fiscal tightening strengthening the case. A November move is unlikely, but momentum for December is growing, signalling lower rates ahead for 2026.
With borrowing costs elevated and liquidity under pressure, local authorities must adopt a strategic, forward-looking approach. Current conditions highlight the importance of active treasury management, cash flow planning, diversified funding, and scenario analysis to strengthen financial resilience.
The UK faces a persistent productivity slowdown driven by weak investment, poor multi-factor productivity, and Brexit-related frictions. This stagnation now constrains growth, narrows fiscal headroom, and shapes the Treasury’s decision-making, with direct consequences for markets, politics, and your institution’s budget.
The rise of Artificial Intelligence has fuelled warnings of a new technology-driven market bubble. However strong corporate balance sheets, equity financing and moderate valuations suggest this is more a ripple than a repeat of history’s bubbles.
Universities face mounting financial pressure as rising borrowing costs, falling overseas income, and eroded domestic fees strain budgets. Liquidity and surpluses are declining, forcing institutions to tighten spending, delay projects, and rely on short-term credit to maintain financial stability.
The Charity Commission's 2025 Risk Assessment warns that financial resilience is the sector's key challenges as costs rise and demand surges. In this climate, sound treasury management and governance are essential.
Assessing creditworthiness is fundamental to sound treasury and investment management. Two primary tools used for this purpose are credit ratings and credit default swaps - each offering distinct but complementary insights into credit risk.
November’s Budget comes against a backdrop of weak growth, sticky inflation and stretched public finances, leaving the Chancellor with little room to manoeuvre. Markets will be looking for fiscal discipline and credible plans, while limited tax levers raise tough questions about whether manifesto pledges can hold.
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