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This article examines the potential resurgence of financial repression as a tool for managing high sovereign debt, analysing historical precedents, current policy trends, and risks, while outlining implications for interest rates, banking, fiscal sustainability, and macro-financial forecasting.
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Persistently high insolvencies underline elevated risks for councils and corporates involved in lending or investment decisions. Arlingclose provides robust, independent due diligence, combining detailed financial analysis and practical safeguards for better informed decisions and risk mitigation.
The ‘Graph of Doom’ illustrates how rising statutory care costs and constrained council income could eliminate funding for discretionary services. Though not a prediction, it highlights the urgent need to address local government’s long-term structural funding challenges.
NATO's new defence spending target of 5% of GDP poses significant fiscal challenges for the UK, highlighting tensions between military ambitions, fiscal rules, and economic realities.
Using capital receipts to reduce the Capital Financing Requirement can lower future Minimum Revenue Provision charges, but authorities must apply this approach prudently, consistently, and transparently through their approved MRP policy.
MHCLG’s March 2025 data shows local authority investments fell 5% year-on-year to £41.3bn, continuing a post-pandemic decline. This highlights a shift in treasury priorities in response to financial pressures and evolving market conditions.
Active ETFs combine traditional active management with ETF efficiency, offering daily liquidity and lower costs than mutual funds. Though nascent in the UK, they present a compelling option for institutional investors. (Part 5 of the ETF insight series)
The BoE's first system-wide exploratory scenario (SWES) exercise highlighted how market shocks can be worsened by firm actions; Arlingclose helps clients navigate these risks with tailored advice and lower-risk investment solutions.
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