When it comes to analysing financial data, understanding is key and this is something we look to help our clients attain through our comprehensive service. What does the outcome of a data source actually mean and how is it formulated? The process and breakdown behind the headline figure is often more illuminating than the figure itself, while headline data is often misreported in the mainstream media.
How does the data fit into the current economic environment and what does it tell us about the probable outlook? Data highlights economic trends and flows, but the important element of any economic analysis is understanding the drivers of these flows.
Only by understanding the deeper underlying trends, which could be demographic, political or economic, can the overall environment be projected forward with any chance of success. Surface froth needs to be understood for what it is; an intransigent influence on financial markets, but with little impact on medium term fundamental-based activity.
Arlingclose Economic Forecast
The Arlingclose economic forecast is based upon projections for the aforementioned underlying flows. While clients receive tactical advice on short term volatility in financial markets, the strategic vision needs to be based on a more fundamental view and it is this we communicate to clients and use as the basis for our financial modelling.
Realising that heavy reliance on one scenario is a risk in itself, we produce a range for economic forecasts, allowing scenario testing to widen and improve the output from financial modelling.
At the more immediate end of the spectrum, we communicate the important economic and political events in the week ahead and use our knowledge of financial markets to project both the potential outcomes and, more importantly, the potential effect on rates and yields. Volatility in financial markets can produce opportunities for investment and borrowing, especially when it is at odds with our medium term interest rate view. These opportunities are signalled to clients as and when they occur.
Our Economic Overview service includes: